Sleepers In Kentucky Derby
Like every year, the Kentucky Derby is here to thrill bettors, and wow horse racing fans. It’s coming at us later than usual due to a global pandemic, but we’ll still take it.
The good times officially start on Saturday, September 5th, which means the clock is ticking for you to bet on the Kentucky Derby. You could win big if you make the right picks, but there’s understandably a lot that goes into it.
Here are five 2018 Kentucky Derby sleepers you may want to keep an eye (and bet)on: My Boy Jack (+3500 at Sportsbetting.ag) Shopping for value ahead of any big horse racing event is pretty key. My Boy Jack has solid odds just about everywhere, but you’re only getting him at a +2000 price at most horse racing sportsbooks. The 143rd running of the Kentucky Derby is coming up, with a 20-horse field lining up to go 1 ¼ miles on the first Saturday of May at historic Churchill No Shortage of Live Longshots in Kentucky Derby Sleeper Picks Odds Shark. Bet on the 2018 Kentucky Derby here! Kentucky derby Sleepers Good Magic: Currently +900 at Bovada, this guy won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall as a maiden, but horseplayers jumped off his bandwagon after a disappointing third in the Fountain of Youth (G2) in his three-year-old debut. The 2019 Kentucky Derby will begin on Saturday, May 4 at 6:50 p.m. ET on NBC, with a potential sloppy track. Game Winner (5-1) is the favorite to win the Run for the Roses, but this is a wide-open race where longshots could cash. Adam Staple provides a few betting strategies and suggests a Pick 4 for Derby. Kentucky Derby Sleepers. By: Aaron Halterman. Published on February 17th, 2012. Over the past two weeks DRF.com has given you two “sleepers” for the Kentucky Derby, but the two horses they have given out are really not sleepers at all.
Like, as in, one of the top contenders in Art Collector was forced to bow out of one of the biggest events of the year.
While that’s a bummer for believers in Art Collector, it opens things up quite a bit at the top Kentucky Derby betting websites. Tiz the Law (-160) becomes the clear favorite to win, to be sure, but this leaves a ton of wiggle room for other horses to stake their claim to first place.
Suffice to say, you’ll want to be assessing Tiz the Law’s ability to hold onto that top spot, as well as some Kentucky Derby sleeper picks that could pull off the upset.
To get you headed in the right direction, join me as I break down some of the best Kentucky Derby sleepers worth targeting this weekend.
Bovada lists Honor A.P. as the next best bet after the favored Tuz the Law, but after that, things get murky in a hurry. That’s where the value could come in, whether you’re betting on Kentucky Derby sleepers to win, or simply finish among the top three spots.
Thousand Words pulls in with the 10th Post Position.
Post Positions for the 146th Kentucky Derby pic.twitter.com/3rgxbNdWY0
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) September 1, 2020
By itself, that means very little, although it’s worth noting that a horse won from that spot last in 2005.
Either way, we should certainly pay some mind to the Bob Baffert-trained Thousand Words, who took first at the 2020 Shared Belief Stakes. That race actually saw Thousand Words edge out top Kentucky Derby contender Honor A.P., which alone probably demands our attention.
Thousand Words has three other first-place finishes and five top-two runs, which showcase his ability to go the distance in ultra-competitive spots.
King Guillermo (+2200)
If you’re looking for a little more meat on the bone, you can bump your way up to King Guillermo, who the top Kentucky Derby betting websites list at +2200.
King Guillermo has been plenty competitive, taking two first-place finishes and finishing third or better in each of his last four races.
The most impressive win came at the 2020 Tampa Bay Derby, where King Guillermo stole the crown ahead of Sole Volante. That was perhaps a little revenge after Sole Volante beat him in his previous event.
King Guillermo also gave it a go at the 2020 Arkansas Derby, where he fell behind the undefeated Nadal. While not exactly the most consistent colt, King Guillermo has winning upside and has proven he can compete with some top-shelf talent.
For more incentive to bet on this horse, take a look at King Guillermo’s Kentucky Derby betting profile.
Things aren’t quite as inspiring with Ny Traffic, but this is another battle-tested colt that has performed very well across several big events.
Ny Traffic has just two wins to his name, but he’s been in the mix for big wins throughout 2020. That includes second place finishes at the 2020 Haskell Stakes and the 2020 Louisiana Derby, where he bested Dr Post and Modernist, respectively.
In-hourse horse racing expert J.W. Paine detailed Ny Traffic’s chances of winning the 2020 Kentucky Derby, and noted that Ny Traffic ranks 5th on the RTKD scoreboard.
While his hot starts give him a chance in just about any race. Could that make him worth backing for the 2020 Kentucky Derby?
Sole Volante (+3300)
Sole Volante has been involved in a few races with the aforementioned King Guillermo, with the two exchanging blows at the end of races more than once.
We did see Sole Volante take a mild step back in his most recent run, where he finished 6th at the 2020 Belmont Stakes. It’s quite arguable that’s not a disastrous fall considering the event and talent, of course.
This is especially true when you note how good the Patrick L. Biancone colt has been in his career. He has four first place finishes in seven starts, and his run at the Belmont Stakes was his first race finishing outside of the top-three.
Sole Volante’s strong 2020 included a second place finish at the Tampa Bay Derby, where King Guillermo surged late for the shocking upset.
Lastly, we have Enforceable, is probably the most interesting Kentucky Derby sleeper pick when you base things solely on pricing.
When J.W. Paine asked himself if Enforceable can win the 2020 Kentucky Derby, he pointed to the colt’s work ethic and drive as reasons to believe.
Tiz the Law, Enforceable Lead Kentucky Derby Workers https://t.co/zAXtqkNePb@BobEhalt@BH_Bking#KYOaks2020#TC2020pic.twitter.com/NQ3Q66wcuG
— BloodHorse (@BloodHorse) August 29, 2020
I second that, but what’s more intriguing is Enforceable’s competitive streak, which has allowed this horse to finish 5th or better in every race he’s run.
The “winning” part is where it becomes fuzzy, of course. Enforceable has just two wins under his belt, and in the big races (Blue Grass Stakes and Louisiana Derby), he just couldn’t stick to the front of the pack.
Hard work can still pay off in this spot, however, and Enforceable’s +4000 Kentucky Derby odds are going to be tough to ignore.
More Kentucky Derby Betting Advice
Going into the 2020 Kentucky Derby, I have two thoughts; Tiz the Law is probably going to win, and there are a plethora of ways to look at this event.
The scheduling is all off due to a global pandemic, and that shakes things up for the field. We will want to consider where each horse is starting off, note any jockey changes, and keep tabs on any last second issues.
Art Collector bowing out of the Kentucky Derby is probably the biggest jolt to this race, and it could allow some of these Kentucky Derby value picks to have an honest shot at shocking the world.
I’m far from the only voice to listen to when it comes to Kentucky Derby betting, of course. J.W. Paine is our resident horse racing betting guru, while a number of other sports betting writers have pitched in to give you betting advice. This includes a guide to betting on the Kentucky Derby online.
For the rest of the information and advice, check out our Kentucky Derby blog.
The 2019 Kentucky Derby is almost here. The 145th “Run for the Roses” is set to go down on May 4 from Churchill Downs. 20 horses are set to run for glory. Star jockey Mike Smith, who rode Justify to a Triple Crown last year, has elected to ride Omaha Beach at the upcoming Derby.
Smith chose Omaha Beach over fellow favorite Roadster. Both Thoroughbreds are listed at 7-2 to win the Kentucky Derby as of this writing, which gives them the most favorable odds of the 20 horses in the field.
Underdogs have not fared particularly well at the Kentucky Derby in recent years. Justify was a heavy 5/2 favorite last year. Always Dreaming entered the 2017 Derby at 9/2, while Nyquist was a massive 2/1 favorite back in 2016. 2015, of course, brought another Triple Crown winner in American Pharoah, who won the Kentucky Derby after entering as a 5/2 favorite on Derby day.
However, that isn’t to say a sleeper can’t shock the world and actually win the Kentucky Derby. A number of also-rans have beaten the odds and won the race before. Look no further than 2012, when I’ll Have Another won the Kentucky Derby as a 15/1 underdog. The most shocking Derby winner of all-time is arguably Mine That Bird, who came out of nowhere to take first at the 2009 Kentucky Derby after being listed at 50/1 on race day.
What does the 2019 Kentucky Derby have in store? Betting on the favorites is obviously the safer route, but where’s the fun in that? Everyone loves an underdog story, and betting on the right sleeper is the best way to get more bang for your buck as a bettor.
The following are the horses with the best chances of beating the odds on Derby day.
Maximum Security (9-1)
Maximum Security isn’t your traditional sleeper. He has been listed among the favorites in the past, but his odds have slipped as more horses have qualified for the Derby. The fact that we can currently get him at 9-1 makes for an amazing value.
This is actually the only unbeaten (4-0-0) horse in the field. Maximum Security picked up a wire-to-wire win at the Florida Derby in order to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. The horse won the race by 3 ½ lengths over Bodexpress back in March, and his tendency to get off to fast starts should serve him well at Churchill Downs.
This isn’t a horse with great pedigree, as he was purchased by Gary and Mary West Stables of Kentucky last December for just $16,000. His win at the Florida Derby was certainly a surprise, but nobody will be taking him lightly anymore. Maximum Security was listed at 6-1 to win the Florida Derby, and his victory in the race netted his owners a whopping $600,000 prize.
Maximum Security is coming with even longer odds at the Kentucky Derby, so it’s hard not to like his chances. He’s been routinely beating the odds up to this point, so who’s to say he doesn’t have another big win in him? With favorites like Omaha Beach and Roadster garnering so much of the attention, there’s a chance the odds for some of the lesser-known contenders like Maximum Security get even more favorable by the time race day rolls around.
Tacitus (14-1)
Tacitus is my favorite of the Kentucky Derby sleeper bets. This horse won each of his last two starts at the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial, and he currently leads all horses in the field with 150 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Tacitus has 12 ½ more points than Omaha Beach.
Trainer Bill Mott, who is still in search of his first Kentucky Derby win, is a believer in Tacitus. The horse finished fourth in his first-ever race last fall before winning his very next start. Tacitus’ win at the Wood Memorial was particularly impressive, as he took a hit early on and had to battle his way back into the race. He wound up picking up a 1 ¼-length victory over Tax.
Unlike Maximum Security, Tacitus is a Thoroughbred that may start slowly before gaining steam as the race progresses. A ton of speed isn’t expected in this particular field, so Tacitus’ ability to close the gap quickly should serve him well at Churchill Downs.
Sleepers In Kentucky Derby Races
Tacitus will be the ninth horse Mott will have sent to the Derby, with Hofburg’s seventh-place finish last year being his best-ever finish at the event. The jockey is Jose Ortiz, who has ridden Tacitus at each of his previous four starts. Last year, Ortiz was on top of Good Magic, who finished second to Justify at the Kentucky Derby.
Tacitus at 14-1 is an excellent value, so I this is a sleeper bet I would be jumping all over as the race gets closer.
Code of Honor (18-1)
Code of Honor has run five races in his career. He’s won two of them while also picking up a second- and third-place finish. That inconsistent record has some effect on his chances at achieving much success at the Derby, but there’s plenty to like about his physical make-up.
He picked up a third-place finish at the Florida Derby, and he impressively charged up the field from the back after a sluggish start. It was too little, too late as far as challenging the frontrunners went, but his late-charging style gives some bettors reason for optimism regarding his chances at the Derby.
A key for Code of Honor at Churchill Downs will be to get off to a clean start. Any sort of early setback may well end his chances at legitimately challenging his opponents, and he has shown an unfortunate knack for getting himself into early trouble in the past.
His win at the Fountain of Youth Stakes essentially put him on the map, and that showing is the main reason he makes for an interesting sleeper bet at the Kentucky Derby at 18-1 odds. It won’t hurt that legendary jockey John Velazquez will be taking the reins. Velazquez has won the Derby twice in 21 career starts with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Always Dreaming in 2017.
Long Range Toddy (50-1)
If you want a full-on punt, Long Range Toddy at 50-1 odds is likely your best bet. This is one of the more experienced horses in the field. Long Range Toddy has made eight career starts and has four wins under his belt in addition to a second- and third-place finish.
His odds are long due in part to a ragged showing at his most recent outing at the Arkansas Derby. Long Range Toddy struggled to a sixth-place finish, and he was beaten by a whopping 14 ¾ lengths. To be fair, the track was in poor condition after heavy storms rolled through the area, so perhaps his performance can be explained away due to the difficult surface.
There’s really no other reason for a horse with his kind of track record to be listed as such a massive underdog heading into the Derby. Long Range Toddy has been fairly consistent overall, and veteran jockey Jon Court should help him. This will be Court’s fourth appearance at the Derby, though it’ll be his first since 2013.
Horse to Fade: Roadster (7-2)
Tacitus, Code of Honor, Maximum Security and Long Range Toddy are my favorite sleeper bets in the 2019 Kentucky Derby field, but I’d also like to talk about one of the favorites. Roadster is right there with Omaha Beach as a 7-2 favorite as of this writing.
Roadster is trained by Bob Baffert, so that fact alone will attract plenty of optimistic bettors. Baffert trained both American Pharoah and Justify during their Triple Crown runs. Roadster has three wins and a third-place finish across four career starts.
However, the red flag here is the jockey situation. Mike Smith won the Triple Crown atop Justify last year, and he has ridden both Roadster and Omaha Beach during prep races. He was given the choice ahead of the Kentucky Derby, and he has decided to race with Omaha Beach instead of Roadster at Churchill Downs.
Kentucky Derby Results
The odds aren’t all that favorable from a profit potential standpoint at 7-2, and the fact that Smith decided against riding Roadster at the Derby is enough to make me question his viability as a co-favorite. I would be surprised if the horses had the same odds on race day, but as of now I’m inclined to think Omaha Beach is the better bet than Roadster among the odds-on favorites.
Kentucky Derby Picks
I’d much rather take a stab at some of the aforementioned sleepers than eat the heavy chalk on a horse like Roadster at the 2019 Kentucky Derby.