Over Under Strategy

Mastering over/under bets, also known as totals, isn’t as complicated as most people think. With decent knowledge about the league in question, the competing teams, their starting lineups and previous matches, over/under bets can quickly become a steady source of betting profit. Lots of betting experts use these bets to their advantage for that particular reason.

1. Over Under 2.5 Goals Strategy
2. Over Under Strategy
3. Over/under Betting Strategy
4. Basketball Over Under Strategy

The most popular Under 2.5 goals Betfair trading strategy is very similar to Over 2.5 strategy, but this time we are going to back Under 2.5 goals and make some Cover bets in Correct score market on few scorelines that are over 2.5 goals. You are wagering on the combined points scored in the game. For example, if the over/under in the Green Bay-Chicago game is 42.5 and you bet on the over, you need at least 43 points scored in the game to win. Conversely, if you bet the under, and the score exceeds 42 points, you lose. Understanding the basics of betting totals is simple.

If you can dedicate the time and effort to explore these stats and numbers, chances are your betting slips will be fuming with totals-based returns.

However, you’ll still need to come up with a proper over/under betting strategy so you can set up goals and milestones for your betting campaigns.

Additionally, you’ll also need some sort of a guide to help you make use of all those numbers. Number crunching for the sake of number crunching means nothing in the world of sports betting. You need to understand what you’re dealing with to make the best approach at each particular match.

The number-crunching game is pretty much identical across all sports. They all have a certain number of quantifiable in-game stats you need to go through. When it comes to mastering over/under bets, depending on the specific type of o/u wager you opt for, you’ll have to assess teams’ goalscoring and defensive capabilities, chance creation, and average number of scored/conceded goals.

What are Over/Under Bets?

When it comes to mastering over/under bets, we need to start from the sports betting basics and learn our way up to advanced betting tips!

Over/under bets, AKA totals, are based on various quantifiable in-game occurrences. These are not your typical yes/no bets. Instead, sports betting sites specify a number, and you have to guess whether or not that in-game occurrence (for example, goals) will be higher or lower than the number specified by the bookie.

That’s basically the whole concept behind these bets.

Now, there are several options to choose from, and they all vary from sport to sport.

For the sake of keeping this guide as simple as possible, we’re going to be focusing solely on soccer. It’s the perfect sport for over/under bets as it has a ton of in-game occurrences.

That said, let’s check out the most popular soccer-based o/u options!

• Goals are the most popular o/u wagers for soccer since they’re easy to track and don’t require a ton of stats crawling. There are also several variations, such as total goals in the first half, total goals in the second half, and overall total goals. Make sure you know what you’re betting on before you invest too much money and end up squandering it!
• Yellow cards are popular too. They’re also quite easy to track, but you’ll often find yourself switching from one place to another to collect all numbers properly. Talking about cards, red-card-based totals are also available, but they usually have 0.5 as the default value, and it’s more like a yes or no bet, to be frank.
• Corners are essential set pieces, and physically powerful teams heavily rely on them. It’s quite challenging to make a long-term success with corner totals, but it’s doable. With a ton of stats crawling and league know-how, corner totals can become your go-to bet type for quick returns.
• Offsides is an o/u bet variation that isn’t as popular as the ones described above. Still, lots of soccer betting sites feature it so it’s worth

Mastering Over/Under Bets

The best thing about totals is their complete independence from typical match winner betting. These bets allow you to bet on matches without having to choose between team A or team B. You’re betting on the overall flow of the game, certain in-game occurrences that affect the game but aren’t reflecting the losing on winning teams.

However, you’ll still have to assess and analyze both teams as well as their past matches, track records, starting rosters, and so forth.

Additionally, you’ll also have to keep track of their injuries, fatigue levels, and team morale. Factors such as these can significantly influence the overall performance of a given team and impact your over/under wagers.

Mastering over/under bets requires a lot of hard work and even more stats crawling. Not sure which stats to analyze? Here’s a quick list of the most important ones:

Defensive/Offensive Records

Whether you are thinking of betting on total goals, yellow cards, corners, or anything else, the first thing on your bucket ought to be extensive research. As with everything else in the world of soccer betting, totals require a hefty amount of stats crawling and number crunching.

When it comes to total goals, the first thing you should analyze is defensive and offensive records of both teams.

Calculate the median number of goals in their last five/ten matches (or from the start of the season) and work your magic from there.

Another thing to keep in mind is roster changes. Even though this is more of an issue in sports with fewer players where each individual contributes more to the team, it still works in soccer. Moreover, check the injury lists, schedule (if it’s too tight, fatigue can be an issue), and everything player-related that could influence the overall score.

In other words, total goals under seems like the ideal option here.

If, however, both Messi and Suarez are playing and the opposing team can’t count on their starting defensive duo, total goals over should be the go-to option. There are many more examples such as these two, so stay on the lookout for anything and everything that can affect the match you want to bet on.

Match Importance

Match importance plays a vital role in teams’ approaches. You have to recognize such contests and adapt your wagers to match the tensions. Perhaps not so much in league competition, though, unless we’re talking about final fixtures that decide European championships or titles. Group stage plus playoffs are a completely different pair of shoes, with crucial matches (both 1-leg and 2-leg playoffs) that determine which teams go home and which advance to the next stage.

Additionally, high profile matches, those featuring title contestants, are often underwhelming as far as goals are concerned.

It doesn’t happen in every game, but it’s still the case more often than not. In such contests, teams take extra defensive measures and don’t focus their gameplay solely on the attacking end. In other words, be cautious when betting over on high profile matches.

Make sure all stats point towards a high-scoring match. Otherwise, you might be better off with under or skipping the game altogether.

Weather Conditions

The last thing we’d like to emphasize here are weather conditions and their effects on games. Typically, bettors believe hot weather results in more goals than rainy/cold weather. However, recent Premier League stats show absolutely no proof of relation between sunny/rainy days and the number of scored goals.

However, too much rain can affect other totals, and mastering over/under bets will require you to understand the trends. For instance, too much rain can be detrimental to teams who practice quick passing style of play. If the pitch gets waterlogged, the ball can’t travel as far as it usually does, which can drastically affect the match and teams’ ability to control the passage of play in midfield.

Additionally, overly hot weather (something which could be a problem in 2022 Qatar World Cup) results in players getting fatigued much earlier than usual. We’re talking both defenders and attackers. Typically, matches played in extreme heat often result in less energetic performances.

If you want to increase your chances of winning over/under wagers, you have to take into account situations such as these. Extreme weather conditions, match importance, competition stage, and defensive/offensive records are just the tip of the iceberg. For those who want even more, you can always check out our in-depth over/under betting guide that features a ton of supporting info.

Over/Under Betting Strategy

As far as over/under strategy goes, there’s no one size fits all kind of deal. It all depends on the amount of time and money you’re willing to dedicate to betting, and your current knowledge about the league, competition, and sport you’re going to bet on.

Generally speaking, sticking to a high-quality soccer betting strategy ought to yield positive results.

However, if you’re planning to base all of your betting endeavors on totals, mastering over/under bets and adapting your soccer betting strategy of choice will be of crucial importance.

Bankroll management and understanding totals’ value should be your primary concerns. Once you get that rolling, the rest of your soccer betting strategy will fall right into place.

Expert Tips on Mastering Over/Under Bets

Crunching crucial numbers and coming up with (and then following) a betting strategy are great ways to increase your chances of winning. However, there are more things you can do to ensure your long-term profitability.

Here are three additional tips on mastering over/under bets that ought to make a proper betting expert out of you!

Keep Tabs on Line Movement

There’s no clear and cut method of approaching line movement, especially when it comes to totals.

Bookies adjust their odds and numbers depending on the amount of money bet on both ends, and it’s on you to make the best out of the current situation.

Quite often, the line movement will shift back and forth, and you’ll have to time your bets to get the best odds.

With high profile matches, there’s a simple rule of thumb that can help you recognize trends and act accordingly. Most casual bettors (and believe it or not, they’re the majority) take their time with bets.

They usually wait until the last day to lock their choices in.

That’s a well-known fact. However, it’s not that well-known that casual bettors love betting on overs. This, combined with casual bettors’ love for high profile matches results in significant line movements near the start of the match.

Well, if you’re thinking of betting over on a specific high-profile match, you should always do so as early as you can. Since the majority of bettors will be over on the same day (or the day before the match), bookies will adjust the odds accordingly. If, on the other hand, you want to bet under, betting late is the obvious way to go.

Find the Best Possible Totals

Sticking with mediocre soccer betting sites is one of the most common mistakes bettors do. It doesn’t matter if you’re a casual or a hardcore bettor, finding the best possible bookie is the best decision you can make before placing your bets.

As far as mastering over/under bets goes, finding the best possible totals is of crucial importance.

Moreover, we are not just referring to odds here; we are referring to the totals numbers specified by bookies as well.

Always try to find the best balance in terms of betting odds and totals numbers. By doing so, you’ll yield more significant profits and will have much higher chances of becoming profitable in the long run.

Stay Away from Odds or Evens

There’s another, unfortunately popular, totals variation that doesn’t allow you to choose between over and under. Instead, it allows you to choose either odd or even.

Obviously, these types of bets are based solely on luck and have no value as far as long-term profitability goes.

That said, you should stay away from them at all cost.

Even though they might seem entertaining to follow, they could end up costing you a ton of nerves, and even worse, a ton of money.

Final Thoughts on Over/Under Betting

Even though mastering over/under bets isn’t as complicated as most people think, it still requires much hard work. The number-crunching process is often time-consuming, which is why casual bettors don’t invest that much time in their picks.

If you’re thriving to become a professional sports betting expert, our mastering over/under bets guide should be a great starting point. With tips on assessing the crucial factors, betting strategy creation and advanced o/u tricks, you should be all set for your over/under betting future!

Total score over/under betting is one of the three most popular forms of NFL gambling, along with moneyline betting and spread betting. Despite being quite difficult to do well, the concept is quite simple: Over/under betting strategy means picking how many total points will be scored in a game. The number provided as a line is the combination of both teams, and you simply pick: Over? Or under?

Naturally, in practice, the strategy gets a little more complicated, so I’ll explain over the course of this page.

Before I go into detail, though, I want to remind you that over/under bets are one of the most in-depth situations that you will find in NFL gambling. More than most other types, over/under wagers require that you have a complete and comprehensive vision for how you think an NFL game will play out.

We also list our top recommended NFL betting sites here, for your convenience.

This page does not concern researching and determining what the outcome of a game will be: For more information on that, check out my general introduction page, which describes my three-stage NFL Betting Strategy. In short, to make over/under bets, I utilize a three-stage process: gathering information, utilizing checks & balances and visualizing the game.

Here, I’ll go beyond this general NFL betting strategy and provide the following details specific to over/under betting:

• How total score over/under bets work and how to interpret the line
• How to know when to place a wager on a total score over/under bet
• How to find good value and make money in the long run with O/U bets

Let’s get started by talking about what an over/under bet is, and how the line works.

How Does a Total Score Over/Under Bet Work?

Over Under 2.5 Goals Strategy

In my experience, over/under betting is one of the most common and enjoyable ways to gamble on the outcome of an NFL game. Across the nation and across the world, people tune in to NFL games – especially during the fourth quarter – to see whether their over/under bet will pay out.

A total score over/under bet is simply a wager placed on how high the combined score will be between the two teams. To explain, let’s take a look at some specific examples:

These examples come from the Wild Card round of the 2016/17 NFL playoffs: There were 8 games on national TV the weekend of January 7-8, and the gambling public was out in full force to stake their claim on one team or another to win, to cover the spread, or to push the total score one way or another.

These were the available total score over/under bets:

• New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers: Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105)
• Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks: Over 43 (-110), Under 43 (-110)
• Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 47 (-110), Under 47 (-110)
• Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans: Over 37 (-110), Under 37 (-110)

When I put up these sample over/under bets, a couple things become immediately apparent. First off, we notice that different from moneyline bets and spread bets, an over/under bet is a bet on one side of a line, not on an individual team. You can bet the over, or the under, but you can’t bet on one team or the other.

The other thing that you’ll notice is that there are odds attached to each outcome – each over or under. This reflects the golden rule of sports gambling: The goal of odds-makers is always to promote even action on both sides of a wager. Changing the odds to make wagers more or less profitable to gamblers is the way that odds-makers prompt even action on both sides of an over/under bet.

The four games listed above also demonstrate the usual range of over/under odds. In contrast with moneyline odds (which vary widely) and ATS odds (which will often go up to +/- 150), over/under odds do not vary much. Having 75% or more of the games show -110 on both sides is a pretty standard proportion.

And in these examples, the total score lines themselves (which a gambler may go over or under) are also very standard. If the distribution of total score over/under lines was a normal curve, then it’s likely the bulge of the bell would fall around the range of 42 to 47 – this is the range of lines that you will most often see for most NFL games.

Let’s think about what this means in practice. If a game has a total score of 42 points, this means that – on average – both teams contributed 21 points to the total score. This means the equivalent of three touchdowns per team, or six touchdowns total over the course of the game.

For a 60-minute game, this in turn means a touchdown for every 10 minutes of game time: Touchdown #1 on a team’s opening drive. Touchdown #2 with 3 minutes left in the first quarter. Touchdown #3 with 4 minutes left in the half. Touchdown #4 midway through the third quarter. Touchdown #5 with 10 minutes left in the game. And Touchdown #6 on the game’s final drive, within the two-minute warning.

Now, do all NFL games play out this way? Of course not. Not by a long shot. But the reason I give this simplified example is just to make the total score a little more tangible. Thinking about a 42-point total score over/under is a little hard to grasp at first. But when you break it down in the context of a real game, it becomes much more clear how to diagnose what a line means and what type of a game would provoke such a scoring pattern.

With this basic idea of how over/under bets work, let’s now look at when you should place an over/under bet, which is tantamount to knowing whether the odds offer good value.

When Should You Place an Over/Under Bet?

For some reason, NFL gamblers that are particularly keen on using hard statistics to decide when to place a wager seem to gravitate towards over/under betting. So to provide some hard statistics to this conversation, I would simply offer the numbers that I’ve assembled in my 15+ years of NFL gambling.

While it’s not profitable to look back too far into the past (as the NFL has changed dramatically over its history, and the introduction and widespread adoption of the West Coast offense has recently changed the landscape of scoring in the league), limiting our target range to the last 15 years of regular season and playoff football gives us plenty of data to play with – over 7500 games-worth, to be exact.

Over this span of time, the limits for total score lines have become fixed at 30 (for the lowest) and 60 (for the highest). Of course, just because odds-makers don’t post lines lower than 30 or higher than 60 doesn’t mean that games don’t end below or above these bookends. According to my data, roughly 1 in 7 games end up with a total score below 30, and roughly 1 in 8 games end up with a total score above 60.

It’s extremely important to keep in mind, however, that there is no magic statistical formula that will tell you whether or not a game will go over or under. There are a host of systems out there – like betting the under in divisional games and the over in non-conference games, betting the over if the game gets to 41 or 42 or 44 total points, betting the over in games played in below-freezing temperatures, and any number of others.

But once again, statistical systems must be taken with a grain of salt. During these same 15 years, during which so much statistical knowledge has become available about when to bet the over and when to bet the under, the actual record has remained almost exactly 50–50. As in all types of betting, the house will end up making sure that the odds even out.

This is why prudent over/under bets require an understanding of value. Value betting is generally defined as wagering only in situations when you feel very confident about what the outcome of a wager will be (i.e. you feel there is low risk) while at the same time you feel that the odds for a particular wager hold the potential for a nice payoff (i.e. you feel there is high reward).

The betting systems mentioned above are after precisely this type of value, albeit in a slightly misguided way. When a betting system points out some statistical anomaly about how often a particular set of situations has prompted a winning over or an under, it’s useful to note the conditions they reference, but this doesn’t mean you should take what they’re saying as law. Consistently finding value requires combining together a large number of different betting systems with a large number of situational factors.

Now at this point, you might be asking: But what are these factors? How do I know if I’m getting good value? The short and honest response is that I can’t possibly explain this to you in words, especially not in the course of one short page. Like I said above, there is no specific magic formula for you to follow, and if someone tells you that there is, they’re probably going to ask for your credit card information next. It takes skill, experience, and a certain amount of feel to find value, and this takes time to develop.

Having said this, I don’t want you to think that there’s nothing you can do to start making good value decisions, and learning for yourself how to make this a profitable part of your gambling repertoire. In the next section, I’ll dive into the specifics of finding good value for total score over/under bets.

How Do You Make Money with Over/Under Betting?

As I just stated, and as I explain in detail in my general NFL Betting Strategy page, NFL gambling is a skill, and it takes practice. Like any other skill, it takes time and effort to develop the intuition that makes you proficient and profitable. I’ve been employed for 15+ years as an NFL gambler, and one of the ways that I’ve been able to pull it off it by understanding that it’s not a get-rich-quick scheme. It’s more like a job.

With total score over/under betting, the single most important factor involved in making money in the long-run is being smarter and more disciplined at wagering only on good value bets. This is a skill that you will get better at the more often you do it. As you place more wagers, you’ll develop a feel for when there is good value to be found in a particular bet.

Don’t let yourself be suckered in by touts and sharps that will try to convince you that there is some set of numbers, some statistical formula, or some software package that will do the work for you to determine whether you should bet the over or the under, and is guaranteed to make you money 100% of the time.

(Even if they advertise something more realistic – which is to say, something closer to being correct 60% of the time – I would still turn tail and run as soon as they want you to whip out a credit card and pay them five easy payments of whatever.)

In total score over/under betting, there is no substitute for visualizing the entire game in your own mind. You need to actually count up – point by point, quarter by quarter, drive by drive, possession by possession – which team is going to score how many points when and why (take a look at my general NFL Strategy page for more info on this). Do this before you even look at the line, and you’ll have a baseline opinion to compare against.

Next, when you look at the line, make careful note of how different your personal decision on the total score is from the decision that odds-makers framed for the gambling public. You could be dead on (in which case, you’re probably right but there probably isn’t value) or you could be way off (in which case, you’re either right, and there is value, or you’re wrong).

Once again, there’s no exact science to knowing whether or not you are right (and the odds are different) or you are wrong (and the odds were right). The most honest thing I can tell you is this: the key to a good value bet is when you feel certain of a given outcome, while the gambling public and/or the odds-maker feels differently.

For me, I’ve come to a pretty good understanding with myself about when I’m probably stumbling into a good value bet and when I’m probably deluding myself. This isn’t something that I know factually, using statistics or logic, it’s just a feeling I have through years of experience. This is precisely the type of intuition that you can develop with enough time and practice.

Trust your gut, learn from your mistakes, and you’ll be well on your way to becoming a profitable NFL gambler.

Summary: NFL Over/Under Betting Strategy

Total score over/under betting is one of the three most popular NFL bets. The concept is quite simple: In a total score over/under bet, you pick how many combined points will be scored in a game between the two teams. More than almost any other type of NFL betting, over/under bets require an in-depth prediction for how the game will play out, for which I employ my three-stage NFL betting strategy.

Here’s an example from the Wild Card round of the 2016/17 NFL playoffs: New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers: Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105). Notice that an over/under bet is a bet on one side of a line, not on an individual team. Also, notice that there are odds attached to each outcome – each over or under. This is the way that odds-makers prompt even action on both sides of an over/under bet.

The odds for total score over/under wagers are pretty staid: you’ll often see odds of -110 on both sides of a significant proportion of the available total score bets. Most lines fall in the range of 42 to 47, with odds-makers never setting a line below 30 or above 60. However, the actual total score of games often falls below 30 or above 60, even though odds-makers don’t set lines in this range.

A key strategy for understanding the line is to visualize how a game might play out to yield that total score. For example, a typical line of 42 could mean 21 points per side, 3 touchdowns per team, which means 6 total touchdowns in a game. Six touchdowns spread over a 60-minute game averages out to one touchdown every 10 minutes of game time. This helps us visualize what the line of 42 means.

Over Under Strategy

Over time, you’ll develop a greater feel for what the individual total score numbers mean, and you’ll be able to connect these abstract numbers with a tangible intuition about how offensively intense or how defensively stolid a given game must be in order to yield the total score that you see odds-makers list. This skill takes time and practice to develop, but it’s absolutely vital to turning a profit with O/U bets.

Even though there are a large number of statistically beefy betting systems available for picking total score over/under bets, the truth of the matter is that finding good value requires combining together a host of different factors – there is no magic formula. In simple terms, you are trying to find a situation in which you believe the outcome has low risk, but you also find the odds have high potential reward.

Over/under Betting Strategy

Naturally, finding good value in this way – the combination of low risk and high reward – is the goal of all gambling ventures (and all monetary investments, too). But in the case of total score over/under bets, there’s simply no shortcut to doing the work of visualizing the entire course of an NFL game, counting up the points, and comparing this to the line. If the line feels off, you just might have a good value bet.

In conclusion, take the time to develop your own intuitive skill for when the total score of a game will certainly go over or under the line posted by oddsmakers. It’s not easy, but I can tell you from 15+ years of NFL gambling experience that there are few more rewarding experiences to see the course of a game turn out along the narrative you envisioned. In any case, it’s certainly a ton of fun.

Basketball Over Under Strategy