Best Teaser Bets Nfl

The best way for a sports bettor to take advantage of teasers in football is to look for opportunities to cross both the 3 and 7 — these are dubbed “Wong” teasers, in recognition of noted gambling. Free Pro Football Betting Advice – NFL Teaser Pick of the Week. 2012 – 8-2 (+560 units) 2013 – 10-6 (+290 units) 2014 – 7-10 (-510 units) 2015 – 10-7 (+160 units) 2016 – 11-6 (+450 units) 2017 – 7-11 (-620 Units) 2018 – 11-7 (+300 Units) 2019 – 12-7 (+360 Units) Overall Record – 87-59.

Previously, I published a comprehensive article on teaser betting strategy which explains what teasers are, who has the best odds, how to analyze teaser bets on an advanced level, blind teaser bets that are likely profitable, industry secrets and more. If you haven’t read that article, I strongly suggest doing so before continuing.

Now, moving forward, a topic I didn’t discuss in any detail was special teasers. These are the ones referred to at sports betting sites as “sweetheart teasers” and “monster teasers”. The name is not a standard, but the concept is the same. If you’re not familiar with these, a common example is a 10 point three team NFL teaser, generally offered at -110 to -130 pricing.

To give a further example, there are 3 teams you’re interested in betting this week: Jets +1.5, Ravens -11.5, and Patriots -2.5. Rather than betting these straight at -110 or -105, or putting them in a standard parlay, or standard teaser, you can put them in what many sites call a special, monster, or sweetheart teaser. If you do so, you’ll have a single bet of: Jets +11, Ravens -1.5, Patriots +7.5; each spread has been moved 10 points. Once again, you’ll need to risk between $11 and $13 per $10 you want to win, depending if the betting site offers these at -110, -120, -130.

This is only one example of a sweetheart teaser. Some sites also offer four team 13 point teasers, while 5dimes.eu offers teaser betting for 2-15 teams on every half point between 5.5 and 17, as well as a 20 point teaser option. While teaser options vary site to site, the 3 team ten point option is offered by many local bookies and most online betting sites. For that reason, I’ll use that as my example of how to calculate the value of sweetheart teasers.

Ties Often Lose

The first thing you need to know about sweetheart teasers is that, generally, ties lose. This is not the case at all sites, but it is at many of them, so pay close attention to the rules.

Best Sites for 10 Point Teasers

Best Teaser Bets Nfl Rankings

Here are the odds and rules for 10 point sweetheart teasers at four of our recommended betting sites:

www.Bovada.lv – 10 point three team teasers at -110 (Ties Lose)
Sportsbook – 10 point three team teasers at -120 (Ties Lose)
5Dimes.eu – 10 point three team teasers at -110 (Ties Lose)
Bookmaker.eu – 10 point three team teasers at -120 (Ties Reduce)

Sportsbook obviously offers poor odds for this wager type. These guys are good in other areas, but for this type of teaser we’ll leave them out. Bookmaker also offers worse odds, but has its advantages. At Bookmaker these teasers can be bet for as much as $20,000 per bet, while most other sites have $500 max limits. Also Bookmaker has ties reduce, meaning if one or more legs push while all others win, the bet is refunded. However, at -120 this is not enough to make it worth it, so for most, www.Bovada.lv and 5Dimes.eu are the best sites for monster teasers.

Are Sweetheart Teasers Sucker Bets?

For years I heard Sweetheart teasers are sucker bets, but to be honest I hadn’t looked at them in any great detail until writing this article. So with that, let’s go ahead and take a look together:

Now we already know, or at least should know, considering it’s the most common price charged in sports betting, that at -110 you’ll need to win 52.38% of your bets to break even over the long run. When there are three bets which are part of that -110 wager, what we need to do is convert 52.38% into a decimal of .5238 and then find which number times itself three times equals .5238, or in math terms: what is the cube root of .5238. Using a cube root calculator, I quickly determined that .8061 x .8061 x .8061 = .5238. Therefore, for a leg in a three team teaser at -110 to have neutral expected value, it must win 80.61% of the time.

After doing this math, I’m already discouraged. It seems rare that I’m going to pick up an extra 30.61% in win probability by adding 10 points, especially when pushes count as losses. I decided, however, to make an educated guess of which subsets of point spreads have the most value in a 10 point teaser. Now, what I know is that in the NFL the most common margin of victories in order are: 3, 7, 10, 6, 14, 4, 1, 17, 13 and 2. So I want to come up with subsets that cross as many of these key numbers as possible. The six that I decided were most likely to have value, if any subset has value at all, are-10.5 to -12.5 favorites, -1.5 to -2.5 favorites, -4.5 to -6.5 favorites, +4.5 to +5.5 underdogs, +7.5 to +9.5 underdogs and +11.5 to +12.5 underdogs.

My next step was looking at tons of historical data to determine how often teams push at each number crossed in a ten point teaser, and then add them together to get a rough idea if teasing that subset with ten points might have value. After doing, this I eliminated the -1.5 to -2.5 and the +7.5 to +9.5 subsets; teasing those ten points only increased their win rates by around 17%. The other four subsets were close enough to warrant a more detailed analysis.

As a professional gambler I’ve been compiling NFL statistics for years into databases I can use for analysis when needed. While this might sounds complex, for calculating teasers, push probabilities, etc., it is really not all that difficult. While I can’t confirm their accuracy, I’ve heard many recommend atsdatabase.com and sportsdatabase.com for NFL data. Heading to my database, I was able to find the following historical results for 10 point teasers:

-10.5 to -12.5 teased 10 points
Since 2006: 53-15 (77.94%)
Since 2001: 97-30 (76.37%)

-4.5 to -6.5 teased 10 points: (32.7% at -6.5) to (31.6% at -4.5)
Since 2006: 210-61 (77.49%)
Since 2001: 391-108 (78.36%)

+4.5 to +5.5 teased 10 points:
Since 2006: 96-24 (80.00%)
Since 2001: 213-58 (78.60%)

+11.5 to +12.5 teased 10 points:
Since 2006: 24-8 (75%)
Since 2001: 41-11 (78.85)

I’ve now dug into these enough to determine with 98 percent certainty, there is no value to be had in standard three team ten point teasers.

Hopefully, this is not too discouraging. A thinking sports bettor, one who often makes the most profit, is someone who has lots of ideas, curiosities, theories and hunches. Rather than betting these and seeing if they win, they get out a blank sheet of paper, a few spread sheets, etc. and run tests. Bookies are smart, so more times than not we’re going to be disappointed in finding out that our brilliant idea was not +EV.

The good news is that as we practice our skills and as our knowledge grows, in time we can spot +EV bets much quicker. As far as teasers go, outside the box +EV teasers exist on a weekly basis.

Covers

5Dimes.eu has 560 different types of teasers available. They offer 2-15 team teasers on every half point between 5 and 17, and also 20 point teasers, with two different formats regarding ties for each. While initially doing the work takes some time, and it might be a “tough way to make an easy living”, becoming an expert at football teasers and then managing your bankroll will make you easy money over time.

Now, if you’re a recreational bettor just looking for blind bets, stick to the strategies we mention in our teaser strategy guide. In that same article, those of you aspiring to or currently betting professionally can find further advanced strategies.

Remember teaser betting often wins in streaks; don’t get over confident or carried away with your bankroll. Bet responsibly, and we wish you the best of luck!

Best Teaser Bets Nfl Week 5

Other Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles:
» Future Betting Strategy
» NFL Bye Week Betting Strategy
» Parlay Betting Strategy

Although a little more advanced than a normal moneyline or spread bet, NFL Teaser Betting is fairly popular at sportsbooks during the NFL season. Teaser bets account for over 15% of sportsbooks handles for NFL betting, and is continuously becoming more popular.

NFL teaser betting is more common with intermediate or advanced bettors, but it isn’t a hard concept to understand – I will explain how NFL teasers work below.

What is a NFL Teaser Bet?

A teaser bet is a group of straight bets (two or more) combined into one bet, where each individual line has been shifted to your favour by the number of points of the teaser.

There are three main NFL teasers – 6, 6.5 and 7 point teasers.

In a 6 point NFL teaser the line would be shifted by 6 points in the favour of the bettors play. For example if you wanted to take the Ravens -8, it would be converted into Ravens -2 within a teaser bet. The spread was shifted 6 points (from 8 points down to 2 points). Another example would be if you wanted to play the Chiefs -2.5. In a 6 point teaser the -2.5 line would be changed to Chiefs +3.5.

The same rule is applied for 6.5 and 7 point NFL teasers, except, of course, the line is shifted by either 6.5 or 7 points instead of the 6 points shown in the example above. NFL teaser bets must include two or more bets “parlayed” (cannot do single teaser bets).

NFL Teaser Example

Here is what a two team 6.5 point NFL teaser bet would look like:

Your selections: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 and Dallas Cowboys -4.5

In a 6.5 point teaser these would then be changed to: Steelers +9.5 and Cowboys -2

In order for you to win the teaser bet both incomes would have to be correct. If one selection was a push the bet is often refunded, but some sportsbooks will count it as a loss if the other selection lost (check your sportsbooks‘ rules).

Below is another example of a teaser bet that I recently placed and won. I teased the Vikings and Eagles from +2.5 up to +8.5 in a 2 team 6 point teaser.

NFL Teaser Bet Payouts

Every sportsbook will have their own payouts and rules for teaser bets. Our favorite sportsbook for getting the best NFL odds is 5Dimes.eu. Of course the more points you use on the teaser the lower the payout will be, and the more teams you include in the teaser bet the higher the payout will be.

Here are the NFL Teaser Payouts at 5Dimes (subject to change):

6 Point NFL Teaser Bet Payouts
2 Teams – (+100)
3 Teams – (+180)
4 Teams – (+300)

6.5 Point NFL Teaser Bet Payouts
2 Teams – (-110)
3 Teams – (+165)
4 Teams – (+265)

7 Point NFL Teaser Bet Payouts
2 Teams – (-120)
3 Teams – (+150)
4 Teams – (+240)

Of course you can choose more than 4 teams in your NFL teaser bet, I just used these as example payouts so you could get a feel for what the payouts are like on teaser bets. Full payout charts can usually be found at the sportsbooks website.

Now that you know what teasers are check out this advanced Teaser Betting Strategy article written by our professional sports bettor, Jim. In the article you will learn when teasers are +EV and how you can make a profit during the season picking spots to bet teasers.